It remains ShadowStats contention that the surging headline inflation is due to FOMC-triggered massive growth in the Money Supply and Monetary Liquidity, as reflected in the highly liquid Basic M1 (Currency plus Time Deposits / Checking Accounts), not due to an Overheating Economy. The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. Shadow Cloud Gaming: What You Need to Know | Tom's Guide In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic The Countries With The Largest Shadow Economies [Infographic] - Forbes (4) April 25th (Federal Reserve Board, ShadowStats) -- Headline U.S. March 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base details showed a continuing creation of, or a shift or flight to liquidity, all of which tends to fuel inflation. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. ET), with posing here May 2nd; Wednesday, May 3rd; the May FOMC Meeting draws to a close, with a Press Release (at 2:00 p.m. India's Jobless Rate Hits a Three-Month High of 7.8%, CMIE Says. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. Inflation. -- In line with FOMC rate hikes, annual Payroll Growth has been slowing for the last fourteen months, from 5.3% in February 2022 to 2.7% in March 2023, suggestive of softening economic activity. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats Real year-to-year growth patterns were kinder to the fourth-quarter GDP, with year-to-year growth increasing from 0.88% to 1.57%, and with the gain against Pre-Pandemic Peak Activity increasing from 5.03% in 4q2022 to 5.31% in 1q2023. March 7th builds: Power up the pink archer. In parallel, the year-to-year pace of March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate CPI inflation eased to 12.9% in March 2023, from 14.1%, from in February 2023. Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. Announced FOMC policies are little more than jawboning and targeted financial-market hype, until put into actual full effect. Revised year-to-year growth slowed to 0.88%, from 0.91% and an initial estimate of 0.96%, versus 1.94% in 3q2022. April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That also was in context of a deepening shortfall against its Pre-Pandemic Peak by 1.46% (-1.46%) in 1q2023, versus a 1.22% (-1.22%) shortfall in 4q2022. U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph). 1461 soon. Effectively fully surveyed, Permits were down by a deepening, seasonally adjusted year-to-year drop of 24.8% (-24.8%) in March 2023, against a revised, narrowed 16.5% (-16.5%) [previously a 17.9% (-17.9%) February decline]. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% November Unemployment and Payrolls Confirmed Stalled, L-Shaped, Non-Recovering Economic Activity (February 3rd 2023/April 5th 2022) U.S. GOVERNMENT DETERIORATING FISCAL CONDITIONS/ INTENSIFYING FISCAL CRISIS [In context of the United States once again at the brink of breaking its Debt Ceiling and risking default ] Grievously malfeasant U.S. Government fiscal policies continue to contribute meaningfully to the rapidly accelerating pace of U.S. Inflation. Accordingly, comparative year-to-year change in the various March 2021 to March 2022 Money Supply measures against the heavily spiked year-ago activity tended to be depressed, against what otherwise would be the change versus the February 2020 Pre-Recession or Pre-Pandemic Trough (PPT), effectively the Base Circumstance, before the Pandemic emergency liquidity surge. On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration The service costs $49.95 for a single month, $39.95 per month for a three-month subscription and $34.95 per month for a 12-month subscription. March 2023 New Residential Construction continued in statistically significant annual year-to-year collapse for both Building Permits and Housing Starts. ET]. That said, expanded Federal Government Deficit Spending continues, currently at the Debt Ceiling. "John" Williams was born in 1949. Separately, though, the Fed also purportedly has been reducing its balance sheet assets, which should slow or cut the Money Supply growth and inflation. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. ShadowStats postings of the June 2021 Commentary and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on Archives, at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. P E N D I N G .. P O S T I N G S Monday, May 1st, the Census Bureau releases March 2023 Construction Spending (10:00 a.m. John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . [April 9th]. The CPI on the Alternate Data Series tab here reflects the CPI as if it were calculated using the methodologies in place in 1980. TRA's research provides businesses with an understanding of the current operating market which is important in making future decisions. While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago Including Long-Term Discouraged Workers, the broader, March 2023 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate of 24.6% held at a seven-month high. The CPI-U (consumer price index) is the broadest measure of consumer price inflation for goods and services published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).. ShadowStats contends that it is the extraordinary liquidity surge after the February 2020 collapse that is driving the inflation, and which needs to be worked down in order to bring the inflation circumstance under control. Year-to-year Core PPI Inflation (net of Food and Energy) eased from 5.1% to 4.3%. (15) April 5th (Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA) - Following a record 2022 Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit, the January and February 2023 Deficits deepened successively to their worst readings since October 2022, but narrower than in First-Half 2022. Theoretically Equivalent Third-Quarter 2020 GDP (Product) and GDI (Income) Rebounded by Varying Annualized Quarterly Gains of 33.1% and 25.5%, Still Holding Far Shy of Economic Recovery PLEASE NOTE: In 10 days (March 24th), this Retail Sales Series will undergo an annual benchmark revision. CPI Data Series (Subscription required.) ET, May 23, 2023. For the month of February 2023, the real Deficit deepened to -l04.6 billion. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. He received an A.B. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. Walter J. Best Wishes -- John Williams. (3) April 26th (Census Bureau). April 2023 Annual Benchmark Revisions lowered historical levels and growth estimates for inflation-adjusted Real Retail Sales back to January 2021, likely foreshadowing some downside revisions to headline GDP in its later 2023 benchmarking. March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. At the same time, the FOMC keeps hiking interest rates, in order to kill economic activity that is neither overheating nor driving the inflation, despite the publicly expressed claims of the FOMC and its Fed Chairman. Those numbers are adjusted for inflation, using the Construction Producer Price Index. Against Pre-Pandemic levels, Currency moved from a gain of 27.9% in February to 38.7% in March 2023, with parallel increases from 83.4% to 96.6% for Reserves, and from 54.11% to 61.3% in aggregate Monetary Base. The 2020 Pandemic-Driven Recession was timed by the defining National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), from Peak-to-Trough, as from February 2020 to April 2020 [2 months, the shortest on record] and from Fourth-Quarter 2019 to Second-Quarter 2020 [2 quarters]. If you are a Subscriber and are not receiving, but would like to receive those e-mails, please send a note to johnwilliams@shadowstats.com along with the desired e-mail address. Further background on the SGS-Alternate CPI series is available in our Public Comment on Inflation Measurement. Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series. The Fed will release the headline April 2023 Money Supply and Monetary Base data at 1:00 p.m. Please note with the ALTERNATE DATA Tab, that the Money Supply annual growth rates after February 2021 instead are against the February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Level not year-to-year (although both measures are plotted in the subscriber-only graphs). The NBER called an end to the 2020 Recession on July 19th, again, just the first leg of the Depression. We thank Cass Information Systems for sharing their survey information. Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K -- FEDERAL RESERVE -(April 25th) Coverage of the March 2023 Money Supply and March 2023 Monetary Base follows in the MONEY SUPPLY AND MONETARY BASE Section, subsequent to this FOMC Section. Annual growth in Payrolls has been slowing since February 2022. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. For those looking to subscribe, please go to the SUBSCRIPTION LINK at the upper left-hand corner of this Web page). The pattern of current activity remains consistent with a deepening, albeit not formally recognized Economic Recession. Shadow.Tech - Review 2021 - PCMag Australia Shadowstats.com is a website that claims that the government does a piss poor job of keeping track of certain statistics. Permits up strongly but it's all apts inSouth. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. The Employment series is based on actual Payroll Taxes paid by Employers, as opposed to irregular (Pandemic-induced, telephone-only) impaired surveys of the Public as to Unemployment. The annual drop of 22.0% (-22.0%) in March was against a 23.1% (-23.1%) annual decline in February, and was the eighth straight month of annual contraction deeper than minus 20% (go to https://www.nar.realtor/existing-home-sales for details). Use the drop-down menu below to find highlights and links to Commentaries from the present and past months.
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