Second, only the maximum wind speed per grid cell and year is used for the calculation of the tropical cyclone damage. Climate change will lead to fewer tropical cyclones overall. www.emdat.be, Haimes YY, Jiang P (2001) Leontief-based model of risk in complex interconnected infrastructures. This behavior most likely speaks for an enduring risk adjustment of tourists. Hence, I interpolate the data to generate yearly observations. NHESS - Economic damage and spillovers from a tropical cyclone The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Sect. Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors Worldwide: Direct and Indirect Impacts, $$\begin{aligned} S_{g} = {\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} \max (0, ((M - abs(T)) * \frac{R}{D}^\frac{3}{2} *e^{1-\frac{R}{D}^\frac{3}{2}})+T),&{} \text {if }D<10*R \text { from center to outer core} \\ 0, &{} \text {if }D>10*R \text { out of radius}. Appendix A.5 presents further statistics: Figs. How did the tropical cyclone impact the people communities? volume78,pages 545569 (2021)Cite this article. This is a well-established method (Strobl 2012; Heinen etal. This exogenous measure allows me to identify an immediate negative growth effect of tropical cyclones for two out of seven sectoral aggregates including agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing and wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels. In: Bobrowsky PT (ed) Encyclopedia of natural hazards. The result offers a better understanding of the finding of Hsiang & Jina (2014), who show that tropical cyclones have long-lasting negative impacts on GDP growth by demonstrating which sectors are responsible for the long-lasting GDP downturn that they identify. In total, I exclude five country-year observations from my analysis: Dominican Republic 1979, Grenada 2004, Montserrat 1989, Myanmar 1977, and Saint Lucia 1980. J Dev Econ 111:92106, Fetzer T (2020) Can workfare programs moderate conflict? Econometrica 80(5):19772016, Article The main explanatory variable is a new damage measure for local tropical cyclone intensity based on meteorological data weighted for individual sectoral exposure, which is included in a panel analysis for a maximum of 205 countries over the 19702015 period. 4. This change can be regarded as reconstruction efforts, which is also reflected in the relatively rapid recovery of the agricultural sector aggregate in Fig. In light of this finding, one could question the reliability of the agricultural weighting scheme for the damage variable. Stagnant water can cause the spread of disease, and transportation or communication infrastructure may have been destroyed, hampering clean-up and rescue efforts. As per the guidelines of the World . Sven Kunze. 4.2 demonstrates, this effect may be driven by less demand from the manufacturing sectors. PubMedGoogle Scholar. As demonstrated in Fig. The winds are driven by this low-pressure core and by the rotation of Earth, which deflects the path of the wind through a phenomenon known as the Coriolis force. It . 1 but only for values above 92 km/h. However, since agricultural areas are seldom highly populated, using a population-weighted damage function for the agricultural sectors would be biased. If the official data of the countries or regions are not available, the UNSD consults additional data sources. 2014). Second, I use this new damage data to analyze all (exposed) countries (84) to tropical cyclones worldwide, which allows me to obtain more generalizable results.Footnote 2 Third, I conduct a thorough assessment of the long-term sectoral influences of tropical cyclones, as there is evidence, that long-term effects on total GDP exist (Felbermayr and Grschl 2014; Hsiang and Jina 2014; Onuma etal. In particular, I calculated the leverage and dfbeta of the damage coefficient. However, it has been demonstrated that this bias can be neglected if the panel is longer than 15 time periods (Dell etal. Rev Environ Econ Policy 7(2):181198, Aznar-Siguan G, Bresch DN (2019) CLIMADA v1: a global weather and climate risk assessment platform. These factors are a decrease in the forward speed of a storm, increased intensity, and more water vapor in the atmosphere. 2014). Freddy: The deadly cyclone that lasted more than a month At the same time, other sectors demand more from the manufacturing sectors, resulting in a zero aggregate negative effect for them. The storm will likely damage homes. Consequently, for each grid point g, a wind speed S is calculated depending on the maximum sustained wind speed (M), the forward speed (T), the distance (D) from the storm center, and the radius of the maximum wind (R)Footnote 8: As a result, I generate hourly wind fields for each of the 7814 tropical cyclones in my sample period (19702015).Footnote 9 Figure 1 illustrates the resulting modeled wind fields for Hurricane Ike in 2008 on its way to the U.S. coast. More recent studies have started to use physical data, such as observed wind speeds, to generate a more objective damage function for the impacts of tropical cyclones (e.g., Hsiang 2010; Strobl 2011; Felbermayr and Grschl 2014; Bakkensen etal. For storm surge damage this is not possible, since there exists no global data set so far. The error bars depict the 95% confidence intervals. This cost could climb higher as many rivers have yet to crest and may yet cause additional flooding. (2020) provide evidence that after hurricane strikes in Central America, a short-term negative growth period (12months) is compensated by a positive recovery in the second year. How did Florence impact the economy? | how did tropical cyclone The main causal identification stems from the exogenous nature of tropical cyclones, whose intensity and position are difficult to predict even 24h before they strike (NHC 2016). The largest negative impacts can be attributed to the annual growth in the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sector aggregate, where a standard deviation increase in tropical cyclone damage is associated with a decrease of 262 percentage points of the annual sectoral growth rate. Tropical cyclone | Definition, Causes, Formation, and Effects In general, a one standard deviation increase in tropical cyclone damage is associated with a decrease in the annual growth rate in the sector aggregate agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing of \(-\,2.62\) percentage points. This corresponds to a mean annual global loss of USD 16.7 billion (measured in constant 2005 USD) for the sample average. Moody's estimates that the property loss and direct damages from Hurricane Florence will total $17-22 billion, making it one of the top 10 costliest natural disasters in US history. Possible reasons for these indirect effects, could be changes in fishing patterns in response to tropical cyclones (Bacheler etal. Cyclone Nivar : A cyclone is a general term for a weather system in which winds rotate inwardly to an area of low atmospheric pressure. Taking all considerations together, I calculate the following tropical cyclone damage for each country i and year t: where \(w_{g,t-1}\) are the exposure weights, agricultural land, or population, in grid g in period \(t-1\). Country-year observations above two standard deviations are labeled with the respective ISO3 code. (2019) find a build-back-better effect for plants that survived the 1995 Kobe earthquake and Mohan etal. 2019). J Afr Econ 17(Supplement2):ii7ii49, Cole MA, Elliott RJR, Okubo T, Strobl E (2019) Natural disasters and spatial heterogeneity in damages: the birth, life and death of manufacturing plants. It provides data on 26 homogeneous sectors for 189 countries from 1990 until 2015 and is the only InputOutput panel data set with (nearly) global coverage available. The red and green arrow colors represent significant negative and positive effects, whereas the color intensities denote different p-values. Figure 6 demonstrates that three out of seven sectoral aggregates suffer from delayed negative impacts of tropical cyclones. The agricultural sector relies heavily on environmental conditions as most of its production facilities lie outside of buildings and are hence more vulnerable to the destructiveness of tropical cyclones. It has been shown that the damage of tropical cyclones increases non-linearly with wind speed and occurs only above a certain threshold. In: Bobrowsky PT (ed) Encyclopedia of natural hazards. Observations were excluded if they were above the \((2k+2)/n\) threshold for leverage and above the 2/sqrt(n) threshold for dfbeta. The InputOutput analysis demonstrates that production processes are only slightly disturbed by tropical cyclones. Additionally, within the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors, only the fishing sector experiences indirect negative effects. This hypothesis is supported by empirical findings for a positive GDP growth effect for Latin American countries (Albala-Bertrand 1993), for high-income countries (Cuaresma etal. Mon Weather Rev 142(10):38813899, Sieg T, Schinko T, Vogel K, Mechler R, Merz B, Kreibich H (2019) Integrated assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts including uncertainty quantification. In addition, in a recent working paper, Hsiang and Jina (2014) even demonstrate a long-term negative impact of tropical cyclones of up to 20 years. Cyclone Eloise - Wikipedia WMO continues to monitor the "remarkable" tropical storm, which has cut a destructive path across . A strong pressure gradient rapidly developed within the system as it headed west resulting in a category rating of 5 by 8 March. Furthermore, I use a more specific damage function than Hsiang & Jina (2014) which takes account of different sectoral exposure. Each year the impacts of tropical cyclones and other weather, climate and water extremes around the Earth give rise to multiple casualties and significant damage to property and infrastructure, with adverse economic consequences for communities that can persist for many years. Therefore, I propose a new spatial exposure weight for the agricultural sector, namely agricultural land, which consists of the sum of land used for grazing and crops in \(\hbox {km}^{2}\) per grid cell. Appendix A.3 provides a more detailed description of the composition of the individual ISIC categories. An exception forms the mean damage robustness test for the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectors, where the coefficient turns slightly insignificant (\(p=0.12\)). However, the InputOutput analysis shows that production processes are sticky and indirect economic effects are limited. However, little is known about the empirical InputOutput effects across broader sectors after a natural disaster shock. All weights are available in the HYDE 3.2 data set (Klein Goldewijk etal. Significant effects of tropical cyclone damage on InputOutput coefficients. These regions include East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, North America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The logged per capita value added is not included for the robustness tests of the indirect effects of model 6, because it already compromises a lagged dependent variable. Distribution of tropical cyclone damage, 19702015. The individual point estimates are shown in Figs. Earth Syst Sci Data 9(2):927953, Klomp JG, Valckx K (2014) Natural disasters and economic growth: a meta-analysis. In detail, this model can be described by the following set of regression equations: where all variables are defined as in Eq. (2012) only differentiate between three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and service. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5507. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/3991, Heinen A, Khadan J, Strobl E (2018) The price impact of extreme weather in developing countries. How do cyclones affect the people and communities? Check it out | how \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} Damage_{i,t}= \dfrac{\sum _{g \in i}w_{g,t-1}}{W_{i,t-1}}*\sum _{g \in i} S (max)_{g,t}^{3}\mathbb {1}_{S(max)>92}, \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} IO_t^{j,k}=\frac{Input_t^{j,k}}{Total Input_t^j} \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} Growth_{i,t-1->t}^j=\alpha ^j + \beta ^j * Damage_{i,t} +\gamma ^j*{\mathbf {Z}}_{i,t-1} + \delta _t^j + \theta _i^j + \mu _i^j*t + \epsilon _{i,t}^j, \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} Growth_{i,t-1->t}^j= & {} \alpha ^j + \sum _{L=0}^{20}( \beta _{t-L}^j * Damage_{i,t-L}) +\gamma ^j*{\mathbf {Z}}_{i,t-1} \nonumber \\&+ \delta _t^j + \theta _i^j + \mu _i^j*t + \epsilon _{i,t}^j, \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} IO_{i,t}^{j,k}= & {} \alpha ^{j,k} + \beta ^{j,k} * Damage_{i,t}+ \lambda ^{j,k}*IO_{i,t-1}^{j,k} +\gamma ^{j,k}*{\mathbf {Z}}_{i,t-1} \nonumber \\&+\,\delta _t^{j,k} + \theta _i^{j,k} + \mu _i^{j,k}*t + \epsilon _{i,t}^{j,k}, \end{aligned}$$, $$\begin{aligned} R = {\left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 30, &{} \text {if } L \leqq 24^\circ \\ 30 + 2.5*abs(L)-24, &{} \text {if } L> 24^\circ \\ 75, &{} \text {if } L > 42^\circ . For the sample average (0.88) of the regression of Column (1), this effect can be translated into a decrease of \(-298\)%, as displayed in Fig. I further thank seminar participants at Heidelberg University (2016), the AERE Summer Conference in Breckenridge (6/2016), the EAERE Meeting in Zurich (06/2016), the BBQ Workshop in Salzburg (07/2016), the Geospatial Analysis of Disasters: Measuring Welfare Impacts of Emergency Relief Workshop in Heidelberg (07/2016), the Oeschger Climate Summer School in Grindelwald (08/2016), the Conference on Econometric Models of Climate Change in Oxford (9/2017), the Impacts World Conference in Potsdam (10/2017), and the 8th Annual Interdisciplinary Ph.D. Workshop in Sustainable Development at Columbia University (04/2018). [2] Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. This does not mean that there have to exist a permanent negative growth effect for every period after the disaster. Environ Sci Technol 46(15):83748381, Lenzen M, Moran D, Kanemoto K, Geschke A (2013) Building Eora: a global multi-region input-output database at high country and sector resolution. Since the commonly used report-based EM-DAT data set (Lazzaroni and van Bergeijk 2014) has been criticized for measurement errors (Kousky 2014), endogeneity, and reverse causality problems (Felbermayr and Grschl 2014), I use meteorological data on wind speeds to generate a proxy for the destructive power of tropical cyclones.Footnote 3 This approach is in line with previous empirical studies (e.g., Hsiang 2010; Strobl 2011, 2012), but I advance this literature by generating a sector-specific damage function. Wilmington remained cut off for at least a week following Hurricane Florence delaying the distribution of food, water and . Economica 25(97):5864, Grger A, Zylberberg Y (2016) Internal labor migration as a shock coping strategy: evidence from a typhoon. It is a unification of all best track data on tropical cyclones collected by weather agencies worldwide. 2013), I control for the mean temperature and precipitation of a country in further specifications. I also checked for different lag lengths, but could hardly find any effect above a lag length of five years. 2019) or the destruction of vessels. During 6 February, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) reported that the tropical low had developed into a Category 1-cyclone on the Australian scale . As Sect. The sectors least affected by indirect changes are the agriculture (ag), recycling (re), private households (ph), and export (ex) sectors. Based on a fine-gridded wind field model, I generate a new sector-specific damage measure weighted by either agricultural land use or population data. The increase in tropical cyclone losses has led to concern that anthropogenic climate change is contributing to this trend. Excellent proofreading was provided by Jamie Parsons and Harrison Bardwell. Evidence from developing countries. In terms of total losses, this decrease results in a mean yearly loss of USD \(-\,16.7\) billion (measured in constant 2005 USD) for the sample average (USD 5.63 billion). The new climate-economy literature. http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, Harris IC, Jones PD (2017) CRU TS4.01: climatic research unit (CRU) time-series (TS) version 4.01 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901Dec. How did the tropical cyclone impact environment Florence? | how did However, we still can learn from this analysis of how certain direct effects evolve. Google Scholar, Auffhammer M, Hsiang SM, Schlenker W, Sobel A (2013) Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Tropical Cyclone Freddy on track to become record-breaking storm How did the Tropical Cyclone Florence impact the people communities? Latent heat is another critical factor that influences the development of tropical cyclones. In contrast to this, the no recovery hypothesis states that natural disasters can lead to a permanent decrease of the income level without the prospect of reaching the pre-disaster growth path again.Footnote 1 This could result from a situation where recovery measures are not effectively implemented or where various negative income effects accumulate over time (Hsiang and Jina 2014; Onuma etal. The dynamic analysis reveals that past tropical cyclones have a negative influence on the majority of sectors providing evidence for the no recovery hypothesis discussed in the literature. I show that tropical cyclones have a significantly negative impact on the annual growth rate of two sectoral aggregates: agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing and wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels. While the distribution reveals that on average, geographically smaller countries, such as Hong Kong, Dominica or Jamaica, have a higher damage, there exists a difference between both damage measures, even for the highly exposed countries. Agricultural land and population count in Australia, 2008. Additionally, Cole etal. In consequence to tropical cyclone damage, less tourists visit affected countries (Hsiang 2010), since they perceive these destinations as too risky to travel to (Forster etal. The variables are measured in constant 2005 USD. Freddy has finally been declared over by the French Meteorological service. I also explore the effects on the 26 individual sectors later in this paper. Since the sample period is reduced to 19902015 due to data availability, I re-estimated the regression model of the main specification 2 for the reduced sample of model 6. 6. The impact of weather on economic growth and its production factors, Climate change and developing country growth: the cases of Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia, A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change, https://github.com/davidnbresch/climada/blob/master/docs/climada_manual.pdf, https://www.munichre.com/en/solutions/for-industry-clients/natcatservice.html, https://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s352601.html, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Metadata/Glossary#, https://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/assets/pdf/methodology.pdf, http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=SNAAMA, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. 25111299), Oosterhaven J (2017) On the limited usability of the inoperability IO model. The results indicate that the policies should focus on the direct costs of tropical cyclones. In Pictures: Cyclone Eloise displaces thousands in Mozambique First, I add to the research area on the macroeconomic effects of disasters. 2019). Unraveling the Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Economic Sectors 6: The manufacturing sectors ask significantly less input from it. Upon examining the underlying estimates in Tables 1213 in Appendix A.5, it is evident that the transport, storage, communication sectoral aggregate also turns negative, at least at the 90% confidence interval.Footnote 23. It claimed overall more than 50 deaths. Second and most importantly, I contribute to the literature on InputOutput analysis of natural disasters. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 101(3):E303E322, Korty R (2013) Hurricane (typhoon, cyclone). This paper examines the current, lagged, and indirect effects of tropical cyclones on annual sectoral growth worldwide. On Sunday it moved on from Zimbabwe to dump heavy rain on some areas of South Africa's Limpopo, Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, authorities there said. Within the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing sectors, the negative effects become less pronounced with a zero effect being present after fouryears, while the wholesale, retail trade, restaurants, and hotels sectoral aggregate experiences a persistent negative growth even after 20years. The weighted tropical cyclone damage variables are orthogonal to economic growth as well as the InputOutput coefficients, and the panel approach allows me to identify the causal effect. A tropical cyclone is a low pressure system that develops over tropical waters, characterized by high winds and heavy rain. Both variables are associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones since they only form when water temperatures exceed 26 \(^{\circ }\)C and torrential rainfalls usually constitute part of them. Section4 presents the main results as well as robustness checks. Effects of tropical cyclone damage on sectoral GDP growth compared to sample average. What are 3 impacts of tropical cyclones? In total, I use two different aggregation methods. Am Econ J Appl Econ 8(2):123153, Guha-Sapir D, CRED (2020) EM-DAT: the emergency events database. It is evident from this analysis that many potential production changes are canceled out because of counteracting indirect effects. Correspondence to 00:00 00:00 An unknown error has occurred Ecol Econ 107:333346, Le Cozannet G, Modaressi H, Pedreros R, Garcin M, Krien Y, Desramaut N (2013) Storm surges. As investors kept their eyes on the weather and its potential for destruction, estimates emerged of up to $27 billion in hurricane damage. The damaging winds are responsible for serious destruction of buildings and vegetation. Mohan (2017) provides further evidence that in Caribbean countries agricultural crops are more severely affected by hurricanes compared to livestock. Additionally, a new damage measure is developed that considers the varying levels of exposure of different sectors. Additionally, the lagged dependent variable controls for a sluggish adjustment to shocks of the individual sector input composition. For both variables, I use the year-by-year variation calculated from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) version 4.01, which is available at a resolution of approximately 50km since 1901 (University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit et al. Figure 8 also offers an explanation for the downturn of the mining and utilities (C&E) sector aggregate after some years, as shown in Fig. I show point coefficient estimates as well as accumulated effects and error statistics calculated via a linear combination of the lagged \(\beta _{t-L}\) coefficients.Footnote 17. Color intensities indicate p values according to: \(p<0.01\), \(p<0.05\), \(p<0.1\). This allows me to analyze whether any key sectors exist that, if damaged, result in direct damage of other sectors. The purpose of this study is to advance our understanding of anthropogenic influences on tropical cyclones by quantifying the impact of climate change so far, and in the future, on the intensity . Mon Weather Rev 108(8):12121218, Horvath M (2000) Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations. Resembling large whirlpools, they are made up of rotating, moist air, with wind speeds that can reach over 120 km/h. Depending on the level of aggregation, I run 49 (7*7) or 676 (26*26) different regressions. For tropical cyclones, no empirical cross-country study on indirect effects exists so far. However, an area weight has the disadvantage of including largely unpopulated areas, such as deserts, which are economically meaningless. The analysis of the past influences of tropical cyclone damage demonstrates that the sectoral growth response following a tropical cyclone is a complex undertaking. Tropical cyclones have the largest negative effect on the agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing aggregate compared to other sectoral aggregates. The underlying estimations can be found in Tables 1420 in Appendix A.5. Cyclone Freddy - Wikipedia Tropical Cyclone Freddy - which is threatening communities in Madagascar and Mozambique for a second time in as many weeks - could become the longest-lasting storm of its kind on record, the World Meteorological Office (WMO) said on Tuesday. Cyclones also can bring torrential rains that lead to flooding. The recovery to trend hypothesis characterizes a pattern where after a negative effect in the short run, the economy recovers to the previous growth path after some time. As my panel has a length of 2545years, depending on the chosen model, I assume this bias will not influence my analysis.Footnote 19 Second, all control variables are measured in \(t-1\) to reduce potential endogeneity problems stemming from the fact that control variables in t can also be influenced by tropical cyclone intensities in t (Dell etal. They can best be summarized by three possible hypotheses: recovery to trend, build-back-better, and no recovery (Chhibber and Laajaj 2008). This is because there are regions showing increases or . Additionally, tropical cyclone intensity is measured by remote sensing methods and other meteorological measurements. Notes This figure demonstrates the distribution of the tropical cyclone damage variable (in standard deviations) for exposed agricultural areas (a) and exposed population (b) from 1970 to 2015, Figure 3 shows the country-year observations of the tropical cyclone damage variable for (a) exposed agricultural land and (b) exposed population. This study provides an explanation about which sectors contribute to an overall negative GDP-effect of tropical cyclones identified by previous studies (Noy 2009; Strobl 2012; Elliott etal. First, I only use the damage fraction due to maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Answer in Physical geography for Phophi #301640 Positive effects include, for instance, as a consequence of the destruction of capital, that the marginal productivity of capital increases, making it more attractive to invest in capital in the affected area (Klomp and Valckx 2014). 2 contains a description of the data source, introduces the construction of the tropical cyclone damage measure, and presents descriptive statistics. One major effort of this paper is to generate a new meaningful sectoral damage variable on a country-year level. Econ J 122(559):6491, Dell M, Jones BF, Olken BA (2014) What do we learn from the weather? Most worryingly, the majority of all sectors experience delayed negative effects underpinning how far away the international community remains from a build-back better or recovery to trend situation for tropical cyclone-affected economies. This finding clearly opposes the build-back-better hypothesis as well as the recovery to trend hypothesis. 4 displays the average InputOutput coefficients for all countries for all available years (19902015). After controlling for country and time specific effects, my estimation approaches allow for a causal identification of the direct and indirect responses to tropical cyclones damages with only little assumption needed (Dell etal. First, I run two randomization tests: a Placebo test by using leads instead of the contemporaneous measure of the damage variable and a Fisher randomization test, where I randomly permute the years.Footnote 29 Second, to rule out potential omitted variable biases, I include additional climatological variables (precipitation and temperature) and a set of socioeconomic variables (population growth rate, economic openness, the growth rate of the gross capital formation, and logged per capita value added of the respective sector).Footnote 30 Third, I test different trend specifications: region-specific, nonlinear, and no trends at all.
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